Horizon

Climate change

On this page

    Climate change is already impacting Australia’s marine ecosystems and fisheries, and these impacts will increase in coming decades. Understanding what climate change means for fisheries production and management in Australia is crucial for maintaining healthy marine ecosystems and sustainable fisheries into the future.

     

    Climate change and its impact on Australia’s oceans

    Climate change is impacting our oceans in complex ways. Australian waters are getting warmer and more acidic, sea-levels are rising, major ocean currents are changing, and extreme weather events are becoming more severe.

    Fisheries and climate change

    Climate change is affecting Australia’s marine life at all levels, from individual species to entire ecosystems. However not all species are affected in the same way by climate change—the impacts vary by location, habitat, and species.

    We have been working with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) to improve our understanding of climate impacts on Commonwealth fisheries. The ‘Guidance on Adaptation of Commonwealth Fisheries management to climate change’ project rated the sensitivity of over 100 species occurring in Commonwealth fisheries to climate change and modelled the changes likely to occur in these species’ stocks by 2050. The results reveal that:

    • all Commonwealth fisheries contain valuable species that are sensitive to climate change
    • climate change is likely to influence the abundance of many important species, and
    • all fisheries are likely to be more variable into the future.

    Southeast Australian waters are a ‘hotspot’ for climate-driven ecosystem changes and a number of species are already being Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery. Modelling predicts that some stocks in this fishery may decline by 20 per cent or more by 2040, due to climate impacts. The sub-Antarctic toothfish stock is also likely to decline, while the Northern Prawn Fishery may experience some decreases and greater variability across most target species. Small pelagic species and squid are not predicted to decrease in the short term, however greater variability can be expected. The infographic below summarises some of the different impacts expected in Commonwealth fisheries by 2040, based on CSIRO’s sensitivity analyses and ecosystem modelling.

    Climate Change Footprint in Commonwealth Fisheries 2020–2040

    AFMA Climate Adaptation Program

    We recognise the risks that climate change pose to Australia’s Commonwealth fisheries and we are taking action to ensure our management activities respond to these risks.

    Our Climate Adaptation Program aims to ensure information on climate impacts is being incorporated into fisheries management across all AFMA fisheries, and that operational and management adaptation options are being developed and implemented. 

    Climate Risk Framework

    AFMA, in consultation with world-leading experts and fishery stakeholders, has developed the Climate Risk Framework (the Framework) to formally integrate climate risks into management decisions for Commonwealth-managed fisheries. The Framework is based on a risk assessment approach to integrate climate‑driven ecosystem and environmental considerations and uncertainty into existing management frameworks. The Framework employs a four-step process (below) that evaluates the climate-driven risk to a species from readily available information and then determines whether additional measures are required to respond to the risk.

    AFMA Climate Risk Framework Step 1–4

    The Framework was developed through an iterative process, including trial application across several AFMA-managed fisheries. The Trial Implementation Report provides a review of the trial process including revisions made to the Framework during its development and recommendations for implementation.

    The Framework will now be implemented across all Commonwealth-managed fisheries, with assessments integrated into existing advisory and decision-making processes.

    Climate Adaptation Handbook

    In 2021, AFMA and the CSIRO teamed up to develop the Adaptation of fisheries management to climate change handbook. This handbook is designed to help fisheries managers and operators identify effective responses to climate change by working through an evidence-based process. We are using this Handbook to develop and implement operational and management adaptation options for our fisheries, in close consultation with the fishing industry and other fishery stakeholders. Reports on the outcomes of climate adaptation workshops held to date are provided below.

    Alongside the development of the Handbook, AFMA also worked closely with CSIRO, to understand the sensitivity of Commonwealth-managed species to climate change and associated impacts on current and future stock status. Results of this work is available on the FRDC website.

    Fishery climate and ecosystem status reports

    Climate and Ecosystem Status Reports include information on the current state (or health) of the environment or ecosystem relative to longer-term trends or target states. 

    They provide a way to integrate a variety of diverse data into a simple overview that can be easily communicated, providing managers and fishery stakeholders with up-to-date trends for a specific region or ecosystem to inform management advice.

    Fishery climate and ecosystem status reports

    Southern Squid Jig Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Status Reports

    Macquarie Island Toothfish Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Status Reports

    Heard Island and McDonald Islands Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Status Reports

    Eastern Tuna Billfish Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Status Reports

    Northern Prawn Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Status Report

    Bass Strait Central Zone Scallop Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Status Reports

    Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Reports

    Torres Strait Tropical Rock Lobster Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Reports

    Small Pelagic Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Status Reports

    Southern Bluefin Tuna Fishery Climate and Ecosystem Status Reports

    For other 2023 reports, please contact info@afma.gov.au

    More information

    Did you find what you were looking for?
    Page last updated: 20/10/2025